Pocket Guide for Policy
Makers Agreed by IPCC in Run Up to Bali
Conference
Valencia, 17 November 2007 - The challenges
and opportunities facing the world as a
result of climate change have been distilled
into a concise and sobering guide by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
The guide, launched today after five days
of discussions in the Spanish city of Valencia,
will be essential reading for delegates
attending the upcoming UN climate convention
meeting in Bali, Indonesia.
The guide, officially known as the Summary
for Policy Makers, underlines the urgency
to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
alongside the economic costs of a transition
to a low carbon society.
It also argues strongly in favour of stepping
up support and action on adaptation.
"Neither adaptation nor mitigation
alone can avoid all climate change impacts.
However, they can complement each other
and together can significantly reduce the
risks of climate change," says the
report by the IPCC, a panel jointly established
by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and
the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
It also highlights five "reasons for
concern" which are now stronger than
before. This is because scientists now conclude
that they may happen at lower increases
in temperature or because the risks may
be larger than had previously been supposed.
These include the impacts on species and
biodiversity hotspots as temperatures rise
including polar and high mountain communities
and ecosystems.
- The report says that around 20 per cent
to 30 per cent of the plant and animal species
assessed are likely to be at increased risk
of extinction if global average temperatures
exceed 1.5 degree C to 2.5 degree C over
late 20th century levels.
- The report also points to the likelihood
of "irreversible" impacts. For
example if temperature increases exceed
about 3.5 degrees C, between 40 per cent
and 70 per cent of the species assessed
might be at increased risk of extinction.
- Increases in sea surface temperatures
of about one-three degrees C are projected
to result in more "frequent coral bleaching
events and widespread mortality".
- There is also concern over the oceans
and seas becoming more acidic as they absorb
rising levels of carbon dioxide and the
impacts on "marine shell-forming organisms"
like coral reefs.
Other reasons for concern focus on the
risks of extreme weather events with higher
confidence in the projected increases in
droughts, heatwaves and floods as well as
their adverse impacts.
The report also flags up concern that the
poor and the elderly in low-latitude and
less-developed areas including those in
dry areas and living on mega-deltas are
likely to suffer most.
- There is high confidence that by mid-century
"many semi-arid areas, for example
the Mediterranean basin, western United
States, southern Africa and northeast Brazil,
will suffer a decrease in water resources
due to climate change".
The IPCC summary also expresses concern
that any benefits linked with climate change
will be gone after more modest temperature
rises.
Concern is also raised that new observations
linked with the Greenland and possibly Antarctic
ice sheets may mean that the rate of ice
loss will increase above previous forecasts.
Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director,
said today:" This is perhaps the most
essential reading for every person on the
planet who cares about the future. In this
Summary, the hard science has been distilled
along with evidence of the social and economic
consequences of global warming but also
the economic rationale and opportunities
for action now".
"While the science will continue to
evolve and be refined, we now have the compelling
blueprint for action and in many ways the
price tag for failure-from increasing acidification
of the oceans to the likely extinctions
of economically important biodiversity".
"The momentum on climate change in
2007 has been nothing short of breathtaking
and in no small measure due to the series
of assessments from the IPCC. Today's final
synthesis report translates the complex
science into a lingua-franca so that governments
meeting in Bali can not only understand
the challenge but be empowered to act collectively
on a decisive post 2012 emission reductions
regime," he added.
"This pocket guide for policymakers
is also more than that. It is also a citizens
guide for engaging political leaders, their
members of parliament, local authority officials
the chief executive officers of national
corporations in a public debate on what
needs to happen next," added Mr Steiner.
Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of the
WMO, said: "The science of climate
change has been finally and forever heard
in 2007 as a result of the painstaking and
transparent assessments of the IPCC. Agreement
on the climate assessments should stimulate
action to protect lives and property against
natural hazards and to reduce risks of economic
setbacks and conflicts over water, food
and energy".
"Now that the issue of climate change
is established and recognized, observational
and research efforts should be increased,
rather than reduced. Because societies need
more detailed information about anticipated
impacts at regional and local levels for
responding and adapting to climate change,"
he said.
"Individuals, enterprises and civil
society cannot adapt autonomously without
reliable information and projections, especially
since they should make some of their investment
choices well before the effects of climate
change are fully visible. They should have
access to scientifically credible and adequate
information on climate, from prediction
on the likely timing, extent and effects
of climate change, to knowledge of drought
and flood resistant crops and new crop planting
techniques," said Mr Jarraud.
The summary makes a strong link between
climate change and the wider challenges
facing in particular developing countries
a result of issues like poverty, unequal
access to resources, conflict and disease.
On an optimistic note, the summary point
out that combating climate change does not
have to damage or derail economies.
"There is high agreement and much
evidence of substantial economic potential
for the mitigation of global greenhouse
gas emissions over the coming decades"
if governments adopt the right policies
and incentives, it says.
Bringing down global carbon dioxide emissions
to 2005 levels by 2030 will require a big
shift of investment patterns- "although
the net additional investment required ranges
from negligible to five to 10 per cent,"
concludes the report.
The IPCC estimates that biggest prospect
for emissions cuts comes from buildings,
followed by industry and energy supply,
agriculture and forestry under a variety
scenarios based on the market price of carbon.
Notes for Editors
UNEP and the WMO established the IPCC in
1988. Today's Summary for Policy Makers
and a longer version of the synthesis report
will be made available at www.ipcc.ch
UNEP www.unep.org and the WMO www.wmo.int
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson
