06 Dec 2007 - Bali, Indonesia
– A vicious cycle of climate change and deforestation
could wipe out or severely damage nearly 60%
of the Amazon forest by 2030, says WWF.
The WWF report, The Amazon's Vicious Cycles:
Drought and Fire in the Greenhouse, reveals
the dramatic consequences for the local and
global climate as well as the impacts on people’s
livelihoods in South America.
From now to 2030, deforestation in the Amazon
could release 55.5 to 96.9 billion tons of
CO2. At the upper end this is more than two
years of global greenhouse gas emission. In
addition, the destruction of the Amazon would
also do away with one of the key stabilizers
of the global climate system.
“The importance of the Amazon forest for
the globe’s climate cannot be underplayed,”
says Dan Nepstad, Senior Scientist at the
Woods Hole Research Center and author of the
report.
“It’s not only essential for cooling the
world’s temperature but also such a large
source of freshwater that it may be enough
to influence some of the great ocean currents,
and on top of that it’s a massive store of
carbon.”
Current trends in agriculture and livestock
expansion, fire, drought and logging could
clear or severely damage 55% of the Amazon
rainforest by 2030. If, as anticipated by
scientists, rainfall declines 10% in the future,
then an additional 4% of the forests will
be damaged by drought.
Global warming is in fact likely to reduce
rainfall in the Amazon by more than 20%, especially
in the eastern Amazon, and local temperatures
will increase by more than 2°C, and perhaps
by as much as 8°C, during the second half
of the century.
With further destruction of the Amazon forests,
less rainfall in India and Central America
is anticipated, as would rainfall during the
growing season in the grain belts of the US
and Brazil.
Strategies to halt deforestation in the Amazon
include minimizing the negative impacts from
cattle ranching and infrastructure projects
to rapidly expanding the existing network
of protected areas.
“We can still stop the destruction of the
Amazon, but we need the support of the rich
countries,” says Karen Suassuna, a climate
change analyst at WWF-Brazil. “Our success
in protecting the Amazon depends on how fast
rich countries reduce their climate damaging
emissions to slow down global warming.”
Climate change is initiating and speeding
up the vicious circle. Today, carbon from
forest conversion to cattle pastures and agriculture
in the Brazilian Amazon is seeping into the
atmosphere at a rate of 0.2 to 0.3 billion
tons per year. This number can double when
severe drought increases forest fires. Emissions
from all Amazon countries are double the figures
for Brazil.
“The Kyoto Plus climate agreement must include
measures to reduce emissions from forests,”
says Hans Verolme, Director of WWF’s Global
Climate Change Programme.
“A failure to protect the Amazon forest will
not only be a disaster for millions of people
who live in the Amazon region, but also for
the stability of the world’s climate.”
Brian Thomson, WWF International
Martin Hiller, WWF Global Climate Change Programme
Mariana Ramos, WWF-Brazil
