4 September 2008-Thousands
are fleeing their homes in Haiti to avoid
Tropical Storm Hanna, New Orleans was evacuated
in advance of Hurricane Gustav and the displacement
of two million people in northeast Indian
due to the worst flood in 50 years underline
the increasing vulnerability of humankind
to natural disasters-vulnerability that
scientists predict will rise if climate
change is left unchecked.
According to Munich
Re, one of the world's leading insurance
companies and a member of the UNEP Finance
Initiative, 2008 is already shaping up to
be a significant, disaster-prone year.
By June, an estimated
400 natural disasters had occurred costing
$82 billion. And while the earthquake in
Sichuan Province, China cannot be laid at
the climate change door many of the others
are in line with the scientific predictions
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).
"The year is following
the long-term trend towards more weather
catastrophes, which is influenced by climate
change," said the German-based re-insurer
last month.
Significant weather-related
disasters in 2008 include Cyclone Nargis
and related storm surges that impacted Myanmar
in May leaving 138,000 people dead or missing;
winter storm Emma which hit Europe in March
costing an estimated $1.5 billion and the
floods along the Mississippi in the United
States in June that have cost around $10
billion.
As our hearts go out
to the victims and the families affected
by current exodus and impacts-the death
toll in India stands at 75 but is likely
to rise- our heads must focus on the urgency
to act on rising greenhouse gas emissions.
There is now less than
500 days before governments meet in Copenhagen
in 2009 to agree on a new climate deal to
kick in post 2012.
Nothing less than firm,
legally binding commitments to significantly
reduce pollution linked with the burning
of fossil fuels will suffice alongside increased
funding to climate-proof vulnerable economies
and communities.
Indeed the way we manage-or
fail to manage-our cities and coastal infrastructure
up to transport networks; agricultural lands;
forests; mangroves and wetlands will be
as critical as managing a big decline in
carbon dioxide, methane and other key pollutants.
The IPCC, whose 20th
anniversary we mark in Geneva this week,
has provided the sobering assessments and
the clear direction that detours and delay
and are not options.
It is not just weather-related
catastrophes that are of concern.
Other far-reaching phenomena
threaten lives, livelihoods and economies.
These range from the melting of glaciers
and snow-pack in the Alps and the Andes
to the Himalayas and the Sierra Nevada mountains
up to sea level rise threatening the livelihoods
of millions across Africa, Asia indeed the
entire world.
Some small island states
have already drafted permanent evacuation
plans which means entire cultures are at
risk of extinction unless we unite to stop
climate change.
The current calamities
facing the planet, from the serious threat
of famine in Ethiopia to the misery and
loss of life in India and the disruptions
to the people of New Orleans, underline
the kind of economic and human suffering
the globe is facing within the coming years.
But the IPCC assessments
have shone an even brighter light on the
costs of action-indeed it clear that it
will not cost the Earth to save it, perhaps
as little as a few tenths of a percent of
global GDP a year over the next 30 years.
In doing so the globe
can also address other running sores from
the loss of forests and biodiversity to
delivering clean energy to the rural poor
and conserving water supplies.
So the IPCC remind us
that we have challenges but we also have
choices. It is time to make those.
In Bali last year at
the climate convention meeting, governments
agreed to negotiate a package of actions
to be finalized by, or at, the Copenhagen
climate convention meeting.
While some progress
was made in August at a meeting in Accra,
Ghana, the level of consensus is failing
to match the magnitude of the challenges
nor the opportunities to Green the global
economy.
The start of the 2008
Atlantic hurricane season should serve as
a reminder and catalyze that urgent response.
According to the United
States National Oceanography and Atmospheric
Administration, there is now an 85 percent
probability of an above-normal season as
a result of atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
The IPCC said in its
fourth assessment last year that there has
been an increase in hurricane intensity
in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and
that increase correlates with increases
in sea surface temperature.
The IPCC also said it
is likely that we will see increases in
hurricane intensity during the 21st century-it
is not too late to act, first at the climate
convention meeting in Poznan later this
year and decisively in Copenhagen a year
later: we have some 500 days left.
