Nairobi,
10 March 2009 – The UN Environment Programme's
2009 Year Book is in part confirming the
concerns of 2,000 scientists meeting this
week in Copenhagen over the accelerating
pace of climate change.
The meeting on 10-12
March, which takes place nine months before
the major UN climate change talks in Copenhagen,
will see the scientists look at new evidence
that global warming is accelerating even
faster than had been forecast by the International
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The 2009 UNEP Year Book,
produced on behalf of the world's Environment
Ministers, was launched in February at the
UNEP Governing Council. As pointed out in
the Year Book, the IPCC had estimated that
sea levels might rise by between 18cm and
59cm in the coming century – but many researchers
now believe the rise will be even higher
in part as a result of new assessments of
ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.
One study now estimates
a sea level rise of between 0.8 and 1.5
metres, while another suggests a sea level
rise of two metres in the coming century
from outflows of ice from Greenland alone.
A one-metre rise in
sea levels world-wide would displace millions
of people. Around 100 million people in
Asia, mostly Bangladesh, eastern China and
Vietnam; 14 million in Europe and eight
million each in Africa and South America.
2008 had the second
smallest area of Arctic sea-ice left following
the summer thaw since satellite monitoring
began in 1979. The National Snow and Ice
Center in the United States found that the
minimum sea-ice cover, which occurred on
12 September, was somewhere over 4.52 million
square kilometers.
"While 2008 saw
10 per cent more ice cover than in 2007,
the lowest figure on record, it was still
more than 30 per cent below the average
for the past three decades. Taken together,
the two summers have no parallel,"
says the Year Book.
• For the second year
in a row, there was an ice-free channel
in the Northwest Passage through the islands
of northern Canada.
• 2008 also witnessed
the opening of the Northern Sea Route along
the Arctic Siberian coast-the two passages
have probably not been open simultaneously
since before the last ice age some 100,000
years ago.
• The Greenland ice
sheet, which could raise sea levels by six
metres if it melted away, is currently losing
more than 100 cubic km a year-faster than
can be explained by natural melting.
• Losses from the West
Antarctic ice sheet have increased by 60
per cent between 1996 and 2006, while losses
from the Antarctic Peninsula increased by
140 per cent.
The Year Book argues
that urgent action is needed to curb greenhouse
gas emissions, not least because some of
the natural carbon storage systems or 'sinks'
may be losing their absorption capacity
raising the spectre of a runaway greenhouse
effect. Studies in 2008 indicates that one
key 'sink'-the oceans-are now soaking up
10 million tones less C02.
The Year Book also flags
up increasing concern among scientists about
releases of greenhouse gases such as methane
from the Arctic as ice melts and permafrost
thaws in part as a result of new studies
indicating that the western Arctic is warming
3.5 times more than the rest of the globe.
This concern has taken on even greater importance
as a result of two recently published studies.
• A study focusing on
North America suggests that upwards of 60
per cent more carbon could be stored in
the permafrost than previously supposed.
• An international study
has now doubled the amount of soil-carbon
in the permafrost across the entire Arctic.
• Marine researchers
have discovered more than 250 plumes of
methane bubbling up along the edge of the
Continental shelf northwest of Svalbard.
• The International
Siberian Shelf Study has found higher concentrations
of methane offshore from the Lena River
delta.
• Researchers calculate
that, once underway, thawing of the east
Siberian permafrost – thought to contain
500 billion tones of carbon – would be irreversible
and that over a century 250 billion tones
could be released.
Monitoring of methane
levels in the atmosphere indicates that
concentrations rose in 2007 and 2008 after
nearly a decade of stability. Intriguingly
higher concentrations were detected in both
the northern and southern hemispheres.
Meanwhile, the Year
Book raises concerns over another carbon
sink – forests. Rising temperatures may
be stressing trees leading to photosynthesis
and thus carbon sequestration halting sooner
in summer months. Stressed forests may also
be more vulnerable to pollution, disease
and pests, again undermining their carbon
storage potential.
