Introduction
29/08/2005 - At the first African Regional
Conference on Environment and Sustainable
Development, held in Kampala in 1989, President
Yoweri Museveni of Uganda said: “No nation,
however powerful, can legislate against acid
rain or ban it over its airspace. We have
a common future and we must defend it if we
are to survive on this planet.”
Two weeks ago I joined environmental Ministers
and leaders from 25 nations in the small town
of Illulisat in Greenland to discuss the defence
of our future. Our discussions, on the dangers
of climate change, were set against some of
the most dramatic and persuasive scenery in
the world – the Arctic icecap which has melted
and thinned by almost 20% since 1950. As we
spoke, rivers of melt-water streamed down
glaciers that have stood for millennia. On
the other side of the globe, the Larsen ice-shelf
in Antarctica has also thinned, in places,
by as much as 18 meters since 11000.
There is, of course, no need to travel to
the ends of the Earth to observe these warning
signs. The ice fields that have covered the
peaks around Mount Kilimanjaro for nearly
12000 years have lost 82% of their ice since
1912. If current climate trends hold true,
the glaciers on Africa's highest summit could
disappear by 2020. Even closer to home, we
have seen Marion Island warm significantly
since 1980, warming of about 1 degree in the
Western Cape over 30 years, and even possible
early warning signs of desertification with
a die-back of desert plants, such as the Kokerboom,
in the Northern Cape and southern Namibia.
In other words – climate change is a powerful
and threatening reality. I am very pleased
today to officially open this 2005 congress
of the Institute of Environment and Recreation
Management, because it provides an opportunity
for policy and decision-makers from a range
of organisations and spheres of Government,
to discuss the impact of the decisions we
make today on our shared future.
The ‘Life-Span’ of Decisions, the Costs of
Inaction & Opportunities for Growth
One of the more comfortable fictions with
which most people live is the sincere belief
that time is on our side. When we speak of
the dangers of global warming and climate
change it is all too easy to shrug off impacts
that are predicted for 20 years or 50 years
time. It is human nature to focus our energy
and attention on the most immediate concerns.
A key insight for visionary governance is
that our decisions today either build restrictive
cages or allow growing opportunities for tomorrow.
As Churchill once said: “We shape our buildings
and afterwards they shape us.” This is even
more true of policy decisions.
Uninformed decisions in Government, industry
and even in households, could lock South Africa’s
next generation into even higher Greenhouse
Gas (GHG) emissions, inefficient energy use,
and wasteful patterns of production. Consider
for a moment the lifespan of some basic infrastructure
decisions: every vehicle purchased has a likely
lifespan of at least ten years; factories
and industrial developments remain as they
are for at least thirty years; power stations
and energy facilities last for fifty years;
homes and offices have a lifespan of one hundred
years; and decisions about land-use and development
patterns last even longer than that.
Apart from the opportunity cost of our decisions,
climate change will have a direct cost to
our economy. The Energy Research Centre at
the University of Cape Town has estimated
that the yearly cost to South Africa of not
acting to adapt to the effects of climate
change now, will be about 1,5% of GDP by 2050
– roughly equivalent to total annual Foreign
Direct Investment in South Africa at present.
This is the cost of damages without the benefits
and costs of taking action, i.e. adaptation.
It is the belief of our Department that this
estimate is exceptionally conservative, and
excludes the almost-certain indirect costs.
Since this week sees that start of Tourism
Month let us take tourism as just one example.
Contributing almost R100 billion every year
to our economy, it is one of South Africa’s
most important growth sectors. At least 30%
of our tourism attractions however centre
on our natural environment – from landscapes
to wildlife. Climate change and the resulting
loss in biodiversity has the potential to
do irreparable damage to key sectors like
tourism.
Whilst inaction holds the potential for great
costs to South Africa, the decision to respond
proactively to climate change holds great
opportunities for growth and development,
especially as new technologies are introduced,
and new skills transferred from developed
countries. Achieving our 2013 additional renewable
energy target of 10 000 giga watt hours, for
instance, could have a positive impact on
GDP of more than R1 billion, lead to additional
government revenue of R299 million, additional
income to low income households of R128 million,
and water savings of up to 16,5 million kilolitres
per year – at the same time creating just
over 20 000 new jobs.Reaching our national
target of a 12% increase in energy efficiency
will save money for industry and consumers,
and reduce the emissions of local and global
pollutants.
In other words, as managers and leaders,
it is our responsibility to the future to
ensure that the planning decisions we take
or influence today are environmentally sustainable.
I would like to issue this challenge to all
members and affiliates of the Institute of
Environment and Recreation Management – to
find the opportunities in your own sphere
of work to support and promote our climate
change response strategy.
Challenging the Sceptics - National Climate
Change Conference
In spite of the scientific evidence, and
the even-more persuasive directly observable
effects of climate change, there remain a
few vocal and hardened climate sceptics. Sceptics
are useful for keeping us on our toes but
the balance of scientific evidence is overwhelming
and we should not be distracted by wasteful
debates with fringe scientists. We have won
the scientific debate and must now proceed
on that basis. The focus is not whether our
climate is changing or if humans are contributing
to the rate of that change, but rather how
best do we respond? The time has come to apply
the precautionary principle. It is time to
act, time to change behaviour,and time to
prepare our communities to deal with the social,
economic and human impacts of climate change.
In our national and international response
we must not only reduce our contribution to
the causes of climate change (mitigation),
but in a particularly vulnerable developing
country like South Africa adaptation must
receive our highest priority. Amongst the
many focal areas for action are our needs
to improve our capabilities for Earth observation
and climate monitoring; bolstering our disaster
management capacity to deal with extreme weather
events; implementing initiatives to conserve
fresh water supplies; and extensive further
research into minimising the likely impacts
on agriculture.In other words – do we simply
strengthen our existing crops to make them
more resilient or do we need to switch what
is planted from apples to grapes and olives
for instance? Where will our future grazing
land be situated? How do we avert the predicted
reduction of up to 20% in maize crop yields?
These are the questions that must shape our
response.
In the international arena, South Africa
is poised to play a key role as a bridge-builder.
One of our most urgent challenges as the global
community is to convince all nations to join
and support the international effort to reduce
the emissions of greenhouse gasses. I have
no doubt that the next few years will be crucial
to move us out of an approach of stalling,
of avoidance, and of excuses to one where
we all accept our responsibility to deal with
climate change within an inclusive multilateral
international framework. Climate change is
a global scourge and requires a unified global
partnership for action.
For this reason Cabinet has approved the
hosting of a major national conference on
climate change in October. The conference
will run in two parallel and overlapping sessions
at Gallagher Estate in Gauteng. From 17 to
19 October there will be a meeting of eminent
scientists from across the continent to advance
scientific methodologies and research findings
relating to climate change in Africa. From
18 to 20 October the National Consultative
Conference on Climate Change will be held
to test and inform South Africa’s policies,
strategy and action plans; explore the way
forward on future commitments; generate inputs
for the 2nd National Communication on climate
change;revise policies to take into account
new scientific developments; develop scenarios
for the different international models being
proposed to reduce GHG emissions; and more
closely align our environmental approach with
our development priorities.
This groundbreaking conference presents a
direct challenge – especially to African scientists
and experts in the field. One of the single
most important priorities is for us to integrate
all available data into the global climate
change models, to bring Africa and its reality
into the climate change mainstream.
Conclusion
I would like to thank you for the invitation
to join you at your congress today, and to
wish you well for your discussions over the
next three days.
It is our hope that initiatives like the
October conference, our climate change response
strategy, and partnerships with organisations
such as your own, will bring together enough
knowledge and generate enough consensus, to
help us choose a different, better path for
our people and our future.
It is my great pleasure to officially declare
the 2005 IERM Congress open.
