6 September 2007 - The
Danish emissions of ammonia are expected
to fall enough in the years to come that
Denmark will be able to meet the requirements
of the 1999 Gothenburg protocol to Abate
Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level
Ozone under Convention on Long-Range Transboundary
Air Pollution and the EU-Directive on National
Emission Ceilings (2001/81/EC). This is
shown in a new report from the National
Environmental Research Institute at University
of Aarhus (NERI).
The report estimates the ammonia emission
from Denmark until 2025. The estimate is
based on expected development in animal
husbandry, development in feeding efficacy,
ammonia reducing technologies and manure
handling.
In relation to the Convention on Long-Range
Transboundary Air Pollution Denmark has
accepted to reduce the emission to 56,800
tonnes ammonia-N/year in 2010. The analysis
in the thematic strategic scenario 2020
primarily suggests a Danish emission ceiling
for ammonia at 51,000 tonnes ammonia-N/year
in 2020 - this emission is excluding emission
from crops and ammonia treated straw. The
projection indicates that Denmark can comply
with its emission ceiling in 2010 and are
furthermore below the current thematic strategy
scenario 2020.
The NERI-scientists expects Denmark will
reduce its ammonia emission (excl. emission
from crops and ammonia treated straw) from
approximately 60,800 tonnes ammonia -N/year
in 2005 to 53,600 tonnes ammonia -N/year
in 2010 and further to 44,800 tonnes ammonia-N/year
in 2020. The overall Danish reduction from
11000 to 2025 is thus expected to be 52
%.
239. Projection of the Ammonia Emission
from Denmark from 2005 until 2025
Gyldenkærne, S. & Mikkelsen,
M.H. 2007: Projection of the Ammonia Emission
from Denmark from 2005 until 2025. Research
Notes from NERI, 43pp.
Summary
Emission of ammonia to the atmosphere is
responsible for acidification of soil and
water and increased eutrophication in natural
habitats. Approximately 97% of the emission
is related to animal husbandry, primarily
in the agricultural sector, but also includes
private horse ownership as well as use of
fertiliser, incl. sludge and the emission
from crops. The remaining 3% is from the
industry and from transport. In the inventories
previously reported, the Danish ammonia
emission showed reduction from 109,900 tonnes
NH3-N/year to 80,400 tonnes NH3-N/year from
11000 to 2004. This decrease was primarily
due to an increased utilisation of nitrogen
in animal feedstuffs, as well as a reduced
number of cattle and changed manure application
techniques.
Denmark has ratified the 1999 protocol
to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and
Ground-level Ozone under Convention on Long-Range
Transboundary Air Pollution and accepted
the target to reduce the emission to 56,800
tonnes NH3-N by 2010. The same obligation
is contained in the EU-Directive on National
Emission Ceilings (2001/81/EC). This ceiling
includes all sources except the emission
from crops and ammonia-treated straw.
The emission to 2025 is projected in this
report. Due to new research carried out
in Denmark, e.g. in connection with the
Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment
III (VMPIII) research programme, a revision
of the current ammonia inventory model is
required. The current model over-estimated
especially the emission from manure application.
A new inventory model for ammonia will
be developed in 2007. For the purpose of
this projection a preliminary model has
therefore been developed and the results
are assumed to be close to the outcome of
the final model. In the existing model,
for example, the total Nitrogen (N) content
in manure is used to estimate the ammonia
emission. The new model will be TAN based
(Total Ammoniacal Nitrogen). Total ammoniacal
nitrogen is the part of nitrogen that is
volatile. This change is required in order
to implement the foreseen effect of new
ammonia-reducing technologies in the inventory
methodology.
In the projection, developments in animal
husbandry, stable types, manure application
methods, ammonia-reducing technologies and
investment in biogas plants are all taken
into account. Implementation is primarily
based on expectations relating to the effect
of a new animal husbandry law, which is
in force by January 1, 2007 (Law No. 1572
– December 20, 2006). However, there is
a high degree of uncertainty included in
the projection, as it is difficult to estimate
which technologies will be used, to what
extend and where. The effect of manure burning
is not included in the projection. Burning
of the solid fraction of manure from cattle
and pigs is expected to have very little
effect on the ammonia emission, whereas
burning of poultry litter may have a greater
effect.
The new projection estimates that the current
ammonia inventory over-estimates the emission
by approximately 5,300 tonnes NH3-N/year
in 2004. The main reason is an over-estimation
of manure application during spring.
The developed model estimates an emission
of 72,200 tonnes NH3-N/year in 2005, which
represents a reduction of 35% since 11000.
In 2010 an emission of 64,700 tonnes/year
is expected. Up until 2025, a further reduction
to 53,200 tonnes/year is expected. These
figures include the emission from growing
crops.
Emissions that are included in the National
Emission Ceiling are estimated to 53,600
tonnes in 2010. Consequently, Denmark is
expected to fulfil its reduction commitments
for ammonia. The main reasons behind this
are improved feed utilisation, a further
reduction in the number of cattle, increased
manure injection and investment in new ammonia-reducing
technologies in stables and manure storage.
The Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme
has worked out a policy emission scenario
- the thematic strategy scenario 2020 (Amann
et al. 2005), as a basis for outlining a
strategy towards cleaner air in Europe,
including revision of the NEC Directive.
Analysis of the thematic strategy scenario
2020 suggests a Danish ammonia emission
ceiling for 2020 to 51,000 tonnes NH3-N.
The current Danish projected emission for
2020 is estimated to 44,800 tonnes NH3 and
is thus below the value in the Thematic
Strategy scenario. However, it has to be
pointed out that negotiations concerning
the emission ceiling 2020 is presently taking
place. The final proposal for the Danish
emission ceiling 2020 is therefore still
unknown.
