24
Apr 2008 - Climate change is having a greater
and faster impact on the Arctic than previously
thought, according to a new study by the
WWF.
The new report, called
Arctic Climate Impact Science – An Update
Since ACIA, represents the most wide-ranging
reviews of arctic climate impact science
since the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(ACIA) was published in 2005.
The new study found
that change was occurring in all arctic
systems, impacting on the atmosphere and
oceans, sea ice and ice sheets, snow and
permafrost, as well as species and populations,
food webs, ecosystems and human societies.
Melting of arctic sea
ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet was found
to be severely accelerated, now even prompting
the expert scientists to discuss whether
both may be close to their “tipping point”
(the point where, because of climate change,
natural systems may experience sudden, rapid
and possibly irreversible change).
“The magnitude of the
physical and ecological changes in the Arctic
creates an unprecedented challenge for governments,
the corporate sector, community leaders
and conservationists to create the conditions
under which arctic natural systems have
the best chance to adapt,” said Dr Martin
Sommerkorn, one of the report’s authors
and Senior Climate Change Adviser at WWF
International’s Arctic Programme.
“The debate can no longer
focus only on creating protected areas and
allowing arctic ecosystems to find their
balance.”
According to last year’s
reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, if the entire Greenland
Ice Sheet were to melt, sea levels would
rise 7.3 metres, making its status a global
concern. While it is currently impossible
to accurately predict how much of the ice
sheet will be melting, and over which time,
the new report shows there has been a far
greater loss of ice mass in the past few
years, much more than had been predicted
by scientific models.
Likewise, the loss of
summer arctic sea ice has increased dramatically,
with record lows reached in 2005 and — way
more dramatic — in 2007. In September 2007,
the sea ice shrank to 39 per cent below
its 1979-2000 mean, the lowest since satellite
monitoring began in 1979 and also the lowest
for the entire 20th century based on monitoring
from ships and aircraft.
“When you look in detail
at the science behind the recent arctic
changes it becomes painfully clear how our
understanding of climate impacts lags behind
the changes that we are already seeing in
the Arctic,” said Sommerkorn. “This is extremely
dangerous, as some of these arctic changes
have the potential to substantially warm
the earth beyond what models currently forecast.
That is because climate models don’t currently
adequately incorporate important underlying
drivers of the arctic changes we are already
observing, such as the interaction between
sea ice thickness and water temperature.”
The Arctic is not only
one of the places on earth most vulnerable
to climate change, but also a place where
vulnerability is of urgent global relevance.
WWF calls for a two-pronged strategy to
minimize the impacts of climate change.
“We need to reduce
global emissions of greenhouse gases to
levels that will avoid the continued warming
of the Arctic and the anticipated resulting
disruption of the global climate system,”
said Sommerkorn.
“At the same time, we
need to simultaneously reduce the vulnerability
of social and environmental systems of the
Arctic by reducing threats from human activity
and building ecosystem resilience — the
ability of ecosystems to remain stable when
under a lot of pressure.”
WWF will launch
this report at a meeting of the Arctic Council,
the intergovernmental forum of arctic nations
on Thursday. “It is now in the hands of
the arctic nations to act upon this evidence
for climate impacts,” said Sommerkorn. “They
can make a difference if they act strongly,
and fast. It is not too late to throw the
wheel around. It is just way too late for
business as usual.”
Dr Martin Sommerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser, WWF International’s Arctic Programme.
Moira O’Brien-Malone, Head of Media Relations,
WWF International.
