World carbon emissions
are still on the rise and policies to cut
them are growing as well according to an
August 6 report by James Russell
of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute.
The report updates a number of basic and
useful facts about the human induced carbonization
of the atmosphere. Excerpts from the Worldwatch
report follow.
Global Carbon Emission
Still on the Rise: In 2007, carbon emissions
from fossil fuel combustion worldwide reached
an estimated 8.2 billion tons, which was
2.8 percent more than in 2006-and 22 percent
above the total in 2000. The United States
and Europe accounted for roughly 4 and 3
percent, respectively, of the growth during
this decade. India contributed 8 percent,
and China, a staggering 57 percent. Despite
the rapid increase, China's 18.3 share of
global fossil fuel emissions remained slightly
behind the U.S. share (19.5 percent). Per
capita emissions in the developing world
remain well below those in industrial countries.
Fossil Fuels Contribute
Most CO2 And GHGs: Emissions from human
activities have greatly increased the stock
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The
additional gas is trapping more heat, raising
the average global temperature and changing
the climate. Fossil fuels account for about
74 percent of all CO2 emissions and for
roughly 57 percent of all greenhouse gas
emissions. The combustion of coal typically
releases 1.8 times as much carbon dioxide
per unit of energy as natural gas does and
1.3 times as much as oil. But since more
oil than coal is used, total emissions from
these two fossil fuels are similar.
Fuels’ CO2 Contributions
Vary: Carbon-to-energy ratios vary dramatically,
depending on the methods used to produce
the fuels. Liquid fuels derived from coal
have nearly twice the global warming impact
as equivalent fuels derived from petroleum.
Similarly, producing oil from Canada's tar
sands emits up to three times as much carbon
as producing conventional oil, due to the
energy-intensive extraction and refinement.
As conventional fossil fuels become scarcer,
use of these carbon-intensive fuels is growing.
Production of oil from Canada's tar sands
reached 1 million barrels a day in 2004
and may reach 3-4 million barrels a day
by 2015.
Rich Countries Lead
in CO2 Contribution: Consumption of fossil
fuels by the world's wealthiest countries
is largely responsible for elevating atmospheric
CO2 levels to the current 384 parts per
million, an increase of 37 percent over
the pre-industrial level. But today the
rapid, coal-dependent development of China
and India is the most important driver of
growth in global carbon dioxide emissions.
Coal provides 70 percent of commercial
energy in China and 56 percent in India.
Developing Countries
Adding Most to CO2 Growth: Recent trends
suggest that most of the growth in emissions
from human activities will come from the
developing world. In fact, based on the
average growth rates for the past five years
(see Figure 3), China's emissions from fossil
fuels will surpass those of the United States
sometime in 2008. Thus the key to stabilizing
the global climate will be moving industrial
nations to a low-carbon energy economy while
ensuring that developing countries can leapfrog
to cleaner development paths.
Measures to De-Carbonize
Are There: The potential for de-carbonizing
modern economies is huge. Energy efficiency,
wind, solar, and hydro power are carbon-free
energy alternatives that are available today.
Germany, for example, already gets 14 percent
of its electricity from renewable sources
and hopes to increase this to 45 percent
by 2030. A 2007 study by McKinsey &
Company suggested that by 2030 the United
States could affordably reduce greenhouse
gas emissions to 28 percent below 2005 levels
using a mix of measures, including energy
efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon
capture and storage.
International Action
Is Intensifying: Action at the diplomatic
and national policy levels to limit carbon
emissions continues to advance. In December
2007, the 192 parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed
to establish a new global climate change
agreement by 2009. This will build on the
existing Kyoto Protocol, which commits industrial
countries to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions to 6-8 percent below their 11000
levels. Under the existing agreement, emission
targets have not been adopted by developing
countries or the United States, and the
initial commitment period is set to expire
in 2012. These issues need to be addressed
before the conclusion of the negotiations
in 2009.
EU Carbon Market Reduces
Emissions: To meet its commitments in the
most cost-effective manner, the European
Union (EU) established a carbon market known
as the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). By
establishing a carbon cap and associated
carbon price, the ETS has succeeded in reducing
emissions by some 5 percent. The cap has
been lowered to nearly 6 percent below 2005
levels for the 2008-12 period. And last
year the EU committed to reducing greenhouse
gas emissions to 20 percent below 11000
levels by 2020. If pursued by the most cost-effective
policy approaches (including the ETS), these
goals could be achieved at an estimated
cost of about 0.6 percent of gross regional
product in 2020.
U.S. Legislative Action
Possible Next Year: The U.S. Congress has
struggled to formulate a similar nationwide
climate change policy, and the country will
not see climate change legislation before
2009, under a new administration. Despite
the delay at the national level, 19 states
now have greenhouse gas emission reduction
targets. California plans to cut its emissions
to 11000 levels by 2020 through sharp increases
in energy efficiency and by using renewable
sources to supply 33 percent of the state's
electricity by 2030.
Some Developing Country
Mitigation Underway: In spite of relatively
low emissions per person, the developing
world has also begun to act to mitigate
climate change. China's current Five-Year
Plan includes a target of reducing the energy
intensity of gross domestic product 20 percent
below the 2005 level by 2010. China has
also adopted a plan to satisfy 10 percent
of energy demand through renewables by 2010
and then 15 percent by 2020. Costa Rica
has joined Iceland, Norway, and New Zealand
in a pledge to achieve zero net carbon emissions.
Although Costa Rica's emissions are only
a tiny fraction of the global total, its
commitment to carbon neutrality may serve
as a wake-up call to wealthier countries.
Massive Emission Cuts
Are Required and Affordable: According to
a 2007 U.N. report, getting emissions back
to today's levels by 2030 would require
a global investment of about $200 billion
annually, or 0.3-0.5 percent of the gross
world product (GWP). But achieving the reductions
that scientists estimate are needed to limit
global warming to 2 degrees Celsius will
require bringing global emissions at least
50 percent below 2000 levels by 2050. Economist
Nicholas Stern has recently suggested that
the dangers of climate change warrant an
even greater investment-2 percent of GWP.
Though this is a massive sum, Stern's 2007
report, The Economics of Climate Change,
concludes that the price of doing nothing
to stop runaway carbon emissions could
be as much as 5-20 percent of GWP.