New York/ Nairobi, 12
May 2011 – By 2050, humanity could consume
an estimated 140 billion tons of minerals,
ores, fossil fuels and biomass per year
– three times its current appetite – unless
the economic growth rate is "decoupled"
from the rate of natural resource consumption,
warns a new report from the United Nations
Environment Programme.
Developed countries
citizens consume an average of 16 tons of
those four key resources per capita (ranging
up to 40 or more tons per person in some
developed countries). By comparison, the
average person in India today consumes four
tons per year.
With the growth of both
population and prosperity, especially in
developing countries, the prospect of much
higher resource consumption levels is "far
beyond what is likely sustainable"
if realized at all given finite world resources,
warns the report by UNEP's International
Resource Panel.
Already the world is
running out of cheap and high quality sources
of some essential materials such as oil,
copper and gold, the supplies of which,
in turn, require ever-rising volumes of
fossil fuels and freshwater to produce.
Improving the rate of
resource productivity ("doing more
with less") faster than the economic
growth rate is the notion behind "decoupling,"
the panel says. That goal, however, demands
an urgent rethink of the links between resource
use and economic prosperity, buttressed
by a massive investment in technological,
financial and social innovation, to at least
freeze per capita consumption in wealthy
countries and help developing nations follow
a more sustainable path.
The trend towards urbanization
may help as well, experts note, since cities
allow for economies of scale and more efficient
service provision. Densely populated places
consume fewer resources per capita than
sparsely populated ones thanks to economies
in such areas as water delivery, housing,
waste management and recycling, energy use
and transportation, they say.
"Decoupling makes
sense on all the economic, social and environmental
dials," says UN Under Secretary-General
Achim Steiner, UNEP's Executive Director.
"People believe
environmental 'bads' are the price we must
pay for economic 'goods.' However, we cannot,
and need not, continue to act as if this
trade-off is inevitable," he says.
"Decoupling is part of a transition
to a low carbon, resource efficient Green
Economy needed in order to stimulate growth,
generate decent kinds of employment and
eradicate poverty in a way that keeps humanity's
footprint within planetary boundaries."
"Next year's Rio+20
meeting represents an opportunity to accelerate
and scale-up these 'green shoots' of a Green
Economy, which are emerging across the developed
and developing world."
The new report from
UNEP's International Resource Panel, the
fourth in a series, was launched in New
York at the annual meeting of the UN Commission
on Sustainable Development, where sustainable
consumption and production are key issues.
And it precedes by a year the global UN
Conference on Sustainable Development 2012
meeting (or "Rio+20" in Rio de
Janeiro 4-6 June 2012) with its two central
themes of a Green Economy in the context
of sustainable development and poverty eradication,
and achieving agreement on an international
framework for sustainable development.
While the report doesn't
offer detailed policy and technology options
– that's for later reports – it says technologies
that have helped humanity extract ever-greater
quantities of natural resources need to
be re-directed to more efficient ways of
using them.
Global average annual
per capita resource consumption in year
2000 was 8 to 10 tons, about double the
rate of 1900. In 2000, the average rate
in industrialized countries (home to one-fifth
of world population) was roughly twice the
global average and four or five times that
of the poorest developing countries.
Global (and national)
consumption rates per capita are calculated
by dividing total world (and national) extractions
of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass
by world (and national) population figures.
Rapidly expanding international
trade, however, obscures responsibility
for resource consumption and associated
environmental impacts, the authors note.
Over the past century,
pollution controls and other measures have
reduced the environmental impacts of economic
growth. And, thanks to innovations in manufacturing,
product design and energy use – aided by
the rising number of people living more
efficient lifestyles in cities – the global
economy has grown faster than resource consumption
growth.
Still, those improvements
have only been relative. In absolute terms
– with population growth, continuing high
levels of consumption in the industrialized
countries, and increased demand for material
goods, particularly in China, India, Brazil
and other quickly-emerging economies – total
resource use grew eight-fold, from 6 billion
tons in 1900 to 49 billion tons in 2000.
It is now estimated at up to 59 billion
tons.
Decoupling is occurring
but "at a rate that is insufficient
to meet the needs of an equitable and sustainable
society," the report says. Between
1980 and 2002, the resources required per
$1,000 (U.S.) of economic output fell from
2.1 to 1.6 tons.
The report details progress
in four countries where government policy
supports decoupling. Germany and Japan have
both demonstrated the possibilities.
* Germany has established
goals for energy and resource productivity
– aiming to double both by 2020. There are
also ambitious 2020 targets for meeting
heating, electricity and other energy needs
from renewable sources, and the target of
a 30 per cent cut in carbon dioxide emissions
by that same year.
* Japan is committed
to becoming a "Sustainable Society"
focused on low carbon, the reduction, reuse
and recycling of materials, and harmony
with nature. The flow of materials is carefully
accounted. Japan's measures "are probably
the most advanced examples (of) increasing
resource productivity and minimizing negative
environmental impacts in practice,"
the report states.
* South Africa's Constitution
requires "ecologically sustainable
development and use of natural resources."
Policies explicitly call for "resource
and impact decoupling" and greenhouse-gas
emission cuts of 30 to 40 per cent by 2050.
Progress, though, is undermined by a growing
reliance on exports of coal and other minerals.
Its carbon intensity is the world's highest
and emissions per person are double the
global average.
* China aims to build
an "ecological civilization,"
with resource and environmental concerns
top priorities. It has created decoupling
indicators and fixed mandatory targets,
including a 20 per cent reduction of energy
intensity and has run nationwide energy
saving and pollution-reduction programs.
A National Action Plan on Climate Change
targets a 40 to 45 per cent reduction in
carbon dioxide intensity by 2020.
China, in particular,
is a global test case, "because it
wants to continue its rapid economic growth
but use resources more sustainably,"
the report says.
"The measures that
China introduces to reconcile these objectives
will be of crucial significance for every
other developing country with similar policy
intentions."
The report emphasizes
that cutting the rate of resource consumption
and impacts is possible, in theory, if national
economic improvement is defined in terms
other than physical growth.
"It is time to
recognize the limits to the natural resources
available to support human development and
economic growth," the authors say.
Decoupling "will
require significant changes in government
policies, corporate behaviour, and consumption
patterns by the public. … Innovation, even
radical innovation, will be required."
The report describes
three scenarios whereby developed and developing
countries consume resources equitably: 'convergence
by 2050'
Scenario 1: Business
as usual in developed countries, convergence
by others
Per capita resource
consumption in the industrialized countries
remains stable, as it has for the past three
decades, and the rest of the world continues
the current trend to catch up. This path
leads to annual total consumption of 140
billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels
and biomass, or 16 tons per capita for a
population of 9 billion, by 2050. Says the
report: this "represents an unsustainable
future in terms of both resource use and
emissions, probably exceeding all possible
measures of available resources and assessments
of limits to the capacity to absorb impacts."
Scenario 2: moderate
contraction of consumption in developed
countries, convergence by others
Industrialized nations
halve average per capita consumption to
8 tons and other countries rise to that
level. The result: total world consumption
of 70 billion tons in 2050. "This scenario
presupposes substantial structural change
amounting to a new pattern of industrial
production and consumption that would be
quite different from the traditional resource-intensive
Western industrial model," the report
says.
This scenario results
in global consumption of 70 billion tons
by 2050 - about 40% more annual resource
extraction than in 2000. Average emissions
of carbon dioxide per capita would rise
almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita and global
CO2 emissions would more than double.
Absolute cuts in consumption
– well short of the scale required in scenario
two – have occurred in just a handful of
countries, and in some cases only because
they have lowered their per capita consumption
rate by importing resources from elsewhere.
Scenario 3: tough contraction
of consumption in developed countries, converging
with others
Industrialized nations
reduce per capita consumption by two thirds
and other nations remain at current rates,
resulting in a global per capita consumption
rate of 6 tons and total world consumption
of about 50 billion tons, the same as in
year 2000.
This scenario would
be so restrictive, and so unappealing to
politicians, that it "can hardly be
addressed as a possible strategic goal,"
the authors admit.
Yet, even such tough
measures would maintain global consumption
at levels many scientists still consider
unsustainable. Average CO2 per capita emissions
would be reduced by roughly 40% to 0.75
tons/capita and global emissions would remain
constant at their 2000 level.
"These scenarios
challenge our current thinking and assumptions
about development," says the report.
"If investments in developing and developed
countries are made today that lock humanity
into a business-as-usual or moderately improved
resource intensive growth path, the risks
of running into ecological and supply constraints
will worsen."
"This finding has
spurred the International Resource Panel
to focus future reports on how to improve
resource productivity and find viable alternatives
for policy makers."
Challenges ahead include:
Policymakers and the
general public aren't yet convinced of the
absolute physical limits to the quantity
of resources available for human use.
The wide discrepancies
in per person consumption mean different
levels of action are required. Poorer nations,
likely the first to feel the impacts of
resource shortages, must have a chance to
improve conditions in the developed world.
But if they emulate a profligate style of
growth, they not only expose their economies
to supply constraints, the planet's resource
bank will go far deeper into the red.
The best and most easily
accessible mineral ores and fossil fuels
are being exhausted. New sources are generally
more remote and of lower quality. Finding
and extracting them takes more energy and
increases the environmental impact. About
three times more material needs to be moved
for the same ore extraction as a century
ago, with corresponding increases in land
disruption, water impacts and energy use.
Resource extraction
increasingly occurs in countries with lower
legal and environmental standards, meaning
"environmental impacts per unit of
extracted material might become more severe."
As trade expands, it
becomes more difficult to assign responsibility
for resource consumption, a crucial consideration
if each country is required to limit per
capita consumption. Should the reduction
of mining and its impacts, for example,
be the responsibility of the country where
the extraction takes place, the one where
the ore is processed into a manufactured
product, or the one where that product is
consumed?
A "rebound"
effect often leads to increased consumption
after energy or manufactured goods become
more efficient as consumers take advantage
of cost savings to buy something else, or
use a device more often – for example: putting
more kilometres on a fuel-efficient car.
Reasons for optimism:
According to the report,
the certainty that resource shortages will
eventually preclude business as usual ensures
that any country "ahead of the game"
by investing in innovation "will clearly
reap the benefits when pressures mount for
others to change rapidly."
Developing countries,
unburdened by existing technologies, can
leapfrog to less resource-intensive processes
and goods, as much of Africa has, for example,
by bypassing hard-wired telephone services
and moving directly to wireless.
The rising cost of many
resources creates an economic imperative
to use less – although, at the same time,
higher prices could allow exploitation of
more expensive, environmentally hazardous
sources such as oil from the high Arctic.
Urbanization can reduce
a population's consumption rate since it
makes the provision of services more efficient
and "concentrate(s) the knowledge,
financial, social and institutional resources
required for sustainability oriented innovations."
However, the consumption numbers for cities
can be artificially low if the urban area
depends on energy and resources from the
surrounding countryside. In addition, urban
dwellers consume more as the economy grows.
"This captures the dilemma of cities
for sustainability," the report states.
"They drive the global unsustainable
use of resources, but they are also where
the greatest potential exists for sustainability-oriented
innovations."
Even today, there is
a vast difference in resource use rate across
countries, even those with the same GDP
per capita. This indicates that it is possible
for countries to be much more resource productive
and still grow their economies.
Quotes
"We must realize
that prosperity and well-being do not depend
on consuming ever-greater quantities of
resources. Decoupling is not about stopping
growth. It's about doing more with less.
Global resource consumption is exploding.
It's not a trend that is in any way sustainable,"
said Ernst U. von Weizsäcker, co-chair,
UNEP Resource Panel, and Former Chair, Bundestag
Environment Committee
"Decoupling impacts
and consumption from growth is an extremely
important breakthrough – a way of unlocking
the logjam brought about by the notion there
must be a trade-off between economic development
and the environment. Developing countries
could change their idea of what development
means in a resource-scarce world,"
said Ashok Khosla, co-chair, UNEP Resource
Panel; President, IUCN, and Founder, Development
Alternatives, India
"Consumption of
resources has exploded since the time of
our great-grandparents due in part to efficiencies
leading to reductions in resource prices.
With food, rare metals, energy and other
resources rising significantly in real price
terms now, pre-conditions for determined
decoupling efforts are stronger than ever
before."
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