Experts Underline Significant
Future Role in Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and Powering Sustainable Development
Over 160 Scenarios on the Potential of six
Renewable Energy Technologies Reviewed by
Global Team of Technological Experts and
Scientists
11th Session of Working Group III
Abu Dhabi, 9 May 2011
- Close to 80 percent of the world's energy
supply could be met by renewables by mid-century
if backed by the right enabling public policies
a new report shows.
The findings, from over
120 researchers working with the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also indicate
that the rising penetration of renewable
energies could lead to cumulative greenhouse
gas savings equivalent to 220 to 560 Gigatonnes
of carbon dioxide (GtC02eq) between 2010
and 2050.
The upper end of the
scenarios assessed, representing a cut of
around a third in greenhouse gas emissions
from business-as-usual projections, could
assist in keeping concentrations of greenhouse
gases at 450 parts per million.
This could contribute
towards a goal of holding the increase in
global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius
- an aim recognized in the United Nations
Climate Convention's Cancun Agreements.
The findings, launched
today after being approved by member countries
of the IPCC in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates,
are contained in a summary for policymakers
of the Special Report on Renewable Energy
Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN).
The summary is a short
version of a roughly a thousand page comprehensive
assessment compiled by over 120 leading
experts from all over the world for IPCC's
Working Group III.
"With consistent
climate and energy policy support, renewable
energy sources can contribute substantially
to human well-being by sustainably supplying
energy and stabilizing the climate,"
said Professor Ottmar Edenhofer, Co-Chair
of Working Group III at the report launch.
"However, the substantial increase
of renewables is technically and politically
very challenging," he added.
Youba Sokona, Co-Chair
of the Working Group III, said: "The
potential role of renewable energy technologies
in meeting the needs of the poor and in
powering the sustainable growth of developing
and developed economies can trigger sharply
polarized views. This IPCC report has brought
some much needed clarity to this debate
in order to inform governments on the options
and decisions that will be needed if the
world is to collectively realize a low carbon,
far more resource efficient and equitable
development path."
Ramon Pichs, Co-Chair
of the Working Group III, added: "The
report shows that it is not the availability
of the resource, but the public policies
that will either expand or constrain renewable
energy development over the coming decades.
Developing countries have an important stake
in this future-this is where most of the
1.4 billion people without access to electricity
live yet also where some of the best conditions
exist for renewable energy deployment."
Also speaking at the
launch, Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the
IPCC, said: "The IPCC brought together
the most relevant and best available information
to provide the world with this scientific
assessment of the potential of renewable
energy sources to mitigate climate change.
The Special Report can serve as a sound
knowledge basis for policymakers to take
on this major challenge of the 21st century."
The report will feed
into the broader work of the IPCC as it
prepares its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
The AR5 Synthesis Report is scheduled for
finalization in September 2014.
The SRREN, approved
by government representatives from 194 nations,
has reviewed the current penetration of
six renewable energy technologies and their
potential deployment over the coming decades.
The six renewable energy
technologies reviewed are:
Bioenergy, including
energy crops; forest, agricultural and livestock
residues and so called second-generation
Biofuels;
Direct solar energy including photovoltaics
and concentrating solar power;
Geothermal energy, based on heat extraction
from the Earth's interior;
Hydropower, including run-of-river, in-stream
or dam projects with reservoirs;
Ocean energy, ranging from barrages to ocean
currents and ones which harness temperature
differences in the marine realm;
Wind energy, including on- and offshore
systems;
Over 160 existing scientific
scenarios on the possible penetration of
renewables by 2050, alongside environmental
and social implications, have been reviewed
with four analyzed in-depth. These four
were chosen in order to represent the full
range. Scenarios are used to explore possible
future worlds, analyzing alternative pathways
of socio-economic development and technological
change.
The researchers have
also studied the challenges linked to how
renewable energy can be integrated into
existing and future energy systems including
electricity grids and likely cost benefits
from these developments.
While the scenarios
arrive at a range of estimates, the overall
conclusions are that renewables will take
an increasing slice of the energy market.
The most optimistic
of the four, in-depth scenarios projects
renewable energy accounting for as much
as 77 percent of the world's energy demand
by 2050, amounting to about 314 of 407 Exajoules
per year. As a comparison, 314 Exajoules
is over three times the annual energy supply
in the United States in 2005 which is also
a similar level of supply on the Continent
of Europe according to various government
and independent sources.
Exajoules in 2008. Each
of the scenarios is underpinned by a range
of variables such as changes in energy efficiency,
population growth and per capita consumption.
These lead to varying levels of total primary
energy supply in 2050, with the lowest of
the four scenarios seeing renewable energy
accounting for a share of 15 percent in
2050, based on a total primary energy supply
of 749 Exajoules.
While the report concludes
that the proportion of renewable energy
will likely increase even without enabling
policies, past experience has shown that
the largest increases come with concerted
policy efforts.
Though in some cases
renewable energy technologies are already
economically competitive, the production
costs are currently often higher than market
energy prices. However, if environmental
impacts such as emissions of pollutants
and greenhouse gases were monetized and
included in energy prices, more renewable
energy technologies may become economically
attractive.
For most of them, costs
have declined over the last decades and
the authors expect significant technical
advancements and further cost reductions
in the future, resulting in a greater potential
for climate change mitigation.
Public policies that
recognize and reflect the wider economic,
social and environmental benefits of renewable
energies, including their potential to cut
air pollution and improve public health,
will be key for meeting the highest renewables
deployment scenarios.
Increasing the share
of renewables requires additional short-term
and long-term integration efforts. Studies
clearly show that combining different variable
renewable sources, and resources from larger
geographical areas, will be beneficial in
smoothing the variability and decreasing
overall uncertainty for the power system.
There is a need for
advanced technologies to optimize the infrastructure
capacity for renewables. Additionally, there
is a need for balancing supply and demand,
like advanced demand and supply forecasting
and plant scheduling.
"What is unique
about this assessment is that the IPCC allows
us to draw on and bring together a broad
spectrum of experts on each of the technologies
reviewed in collaboration with scientists
studying energy systems as a whole. It represents
a systemic, broad, impartial and state of
knowledge report on the present and future
potential of a low carbon, more resource
efficient energy path," says Professor
Edenhofer.
Key Findings from the
Summary for Policymakers
Of the around 300 Gigawatts
(GW) of new electricity generating capacity
added globally between 2008 and 2009, 140
GW came from renewable energy.
Despite global financial
challenges, renewable energy capacity grew
in 2009 ? wind by over 30 percent; hydropower
by three percent; grid-connected photovoltaics
by over 50 percent; geothermal by 4 percent
and solar water/heating by over 20 percent.
The annual productionof ethanol increased
to 1.6 Exajoules (76 billion litres) and
biodiesel by 0.6 Exajoules (17 billion litres)
by the end of 2009.
Meanwhile, developing
countries host more than 50 percent of current
global renewable energy capacity.
Developing countries
host more than 50 percent of current global
renewable energy capacity. energy supply
by 2050 than nuclear power or fossil fuels
using carbon capture and storage(CCS).
The technical potential
of renewable energy technologies exceeds
the current global energy demand by a considerable
amount-globally and in respect of most regions
of the world.
Under the scenarios
analyzed in-depth, less than 2.5 percent
of the globally available technical potential
for renewables is used-in other words over
97 percent is untapped underlining that
availability of renewable source will not
be a limiting factor.
Accelerating the deployment
of renewable energies will present new technological
and institutional challenges, in particular
integrating them into existing energy supply
systems and end use sectors.
According to the four
scenarios analyzed in detail, the decadal
global investments in the renewable power
sector range from 1,360 to 5,100 billion
US dollars to 2020 and 1,490 to
7,180 billion US dollars for the decade
2021 to 2030. For the lower values, the
average yearly investments are smaller than
the renewable power sector investments reported
for 2009.
A combination of targeted public policies
allied to research and development investments
could reduce fuel and financing costs leading
to lower additional costs for renewable
energy technologies.
Public policymakers
could draw on a range of existing experience
in order to design and implement the most
effective enabling policies-there is no
one-size-fits-all policy for encouraging
renewables.
Key Renewable Energy
Technologies and Their Potential
Bioenergy technologies
can generate electricity, heat and fuels
from a range of =feedstocks'.
Some bioenergy systems,
including ones that involve converting land
into agricultural biomass and energy crops,
can generate more greenhouse gas emissions
than they save.
But others, such as
advanced conversion systems, which for example
convert woody wastes into liquid fuels,
can deliver 80 percent to 90 percent emission
reductions compared to fossil fuels.
Bioenergy, mainly for
traditional cooking and heating in developing
countries, currently represents over 10
percent of global energy supply or ca. 50
Exajoules per year.
While the share of bioenergy
in the overall renewables mix is likely
to decline over the coming decades, it could
supply 100 to 300 Exajoules of energy by
2050, the expert review concludes.
Direct Solar Energy
technologies include photovoltaics and concentrating
solar power (CSP). They can produce electricity,
heat and light.
Currently, direct solar
contributes only a fraction of one percent
to total global energy supply. Potential
deployment scenarios range from a marginal
role of direct solar energy in 2050 to one
of the major sources of energy supply. The
actual deployment will depend on continued
innovation, cost reductions and supportive
public policies.
In the most ambitious
climate stabilization scenarios solar primary
energy supply by 2050 reaches up to 130
Exajoules per year, which can be attributed
to a large extent to photovoltaic electricity
generation. In some scenarios, its share
in global electricity generation reaches
up to a third by 2050, but in the majority
of scenarios remains below one tenth.
Geothermal Energy utilizes
heat stored in the Earth's interior directly
or to generate electricity, with currently
about 0.7 Exajoule per year.
By 2050, geothermal
deployment could meet more than 3 percent
of global electricity demand and about 5
percent of the global heat demand.
Global geothermal technical
potential is comparable to the global primary
energy supply in 2008. However, Geothermal
Energy does not reach the technical potential
limit in any of the scenarios analyzed,
with the deployment rate remaining below
5 percent for both the regional and global
level.
Hydropower projects
encompass dam projects with reservoirs,
run-of-river and in-stream projects and
range from small to large scale.
The installed capacity
by the end of 2008 contributed 16 percent
of worldwide electricity supply, making
hydropower the largest renewable energy
source in the electricity sector.
According to long term
scenarios, hydropower's share in global
electricity supply may decrease to 10 to
14 percent. Despite absolute growth in hydropower
supply, the expected energy demand growth
and continuing electrification could result
in a decreasing share.
Ocean Energy technologies
are diverse and use the kinetic, thermal,
and chemical energy of seawater. Most are
at the demonstration and pilot project phases.
Due to its nascent stage
of development, they are unlikely to significantly
contribute to global energy supply before
2020.
Ocean energy is currently
only represented in very few scenarios.
As shown by the review, projected deployments
could result in energy delivery of up to
7 Exajoules per year by 2050.
Wind Energy's primary
application of relevance to climate change
mitigation is to produce electricity from
large wind turbines located on land or offshore.
The wind power capacity
installed by the end of 2009 met close to
two percent of worldwide electricity demand.
The review shows a high
expansion rate in Europe, North America
and, more recently, in China and India.
A greater geographical distribution of deployment
is likely to be needed to achieve the higher
deployments indicated by the scenario literature.
Under the demand projection
of some scenarios global wind power share
grows to more than 20 percent by 2050.
Notes to Editors
1. The Special Report
on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
Change Mitigation (SRREN)
assesses the potential
contribution of renewable energy sources
to climate change mitigation.
Following the AR4, many
governments as well as important actors
in civil society and the private sector
asked for more substantial information and
broader coverage of all questions pertaining
to the use of renewable energy. The 25th
Plenary Session of the IPCC at Mauritius
decided to hold a scoping meeting for a
possible Special Report, Following the scoping
meeting in Lübeck, Germany in January,
2008, IPCC Plenary in Budapest in April,
2008
decided to prepare an
IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy
Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)
and agreed on its outline. The Summary for
Policymakers of the SRREN was approved by
the Eleventh Plenary Session of IPCC Working
Group III in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates,
5 - 8 May 2011 and was launched on 9 May.
2. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading
international body for the assessment of
climate change. It was established by the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
and the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) in 1988 to review and assess the most
recent scientific, technical and socio-economic
information produced worldwide relevant
to the understanding of climate change.
It does not conduct any research nor does
it monitor climate related data. The UN
General Assembly endorsed the action by
WMO and UNEP in jointly establishing the
IPCC.
3. The IPCC Plenary
is open to all member countries of the United
Nations and WMO.
Currently 194 countries
are members of the IPCC. Governments participate
in the review process and the Plenary Sessions,
where main decisions about the IPCC work
programme are taken and reports are accepted,
adopted and approved. The IPCC Bureau Members,
including the Chair, are elected during
the Plenary Sessions.
4. The Working Group
III (WGIII) =Mitigation of Climate Change'
of the IPCC assesses all relevant options
for mitigating climate change through limiting
or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and
enhancing activities that remove them from
the atmosphere. WGIII analyses the costs,
benefits and risks of the different approaches
to mitigation, considering also the available
domestic instruments and policy measures
as well as international arrangements. The
WGIII is co-chaired by Ottmar Edenhofer
of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research, Germany, Ramon Pichs of the Centro
de Investigaciones de la Economía
Mundial, Cuba, and Youba Sokona (Mali) of
the Africa Climate Policy Center in Ethiopia.