2001-2010 was the warmest
since the start of modern measurements in
1850 and continued an extended period of
accelerating global warming
The decade was the warmest
for both hemispheres and for both land and
ocean surface temperatures
Geneva 3 July 2013 -
The world experienced unprecedented high-impact
climate extremes during the 2001-2010 decade,
which was the warmest since the start of
modern measurements in 1850 and continued
an extended period of accelerating global
warming. More national temperature records
were reported broken than in any previous
decade, according to a new report by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
FURTHER RESOURCES
The Global Climate 2001 - 2010
The report, The Global Climate 2001-2010,
A Decade of Extremes, analysed global and
regional temperatures and precipitation,
as well as extreme events such as the heat
waves in Europe and Russia, Hurricane Katrina
in the United States of America, Tropical
Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, droughts in the
Amazon Basin, Australia and East Africa
and floods in Pakistan.
The decade was the warmest for both hemispheres
and for both land and ocean surface temperatures.
The record warmth was accompanied by a rapid
decline in Arctic sea ice, and accelerating
loss of net mass from the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets and from the world's
glaciers. As a result of this widespread
melting and the thermal expansion of sea
water, global mean sea levels rose about
3 millimetres (mm) per year, about double
the observed 20th century trend of 1.6 mm
per year. Global sea level averaged over
the decade was about 20 cm higher than that
of 1880, according to the report.
The WMO report charted
rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases. Global-average concentrations of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to
389 parts per million in 2010 (an increase
of 39% since the start of the industrial
era in 10000), methane to 1 808.0 parts
per billion (158%) and nitrous oxide to
323.2 parts per billion (20%).
"A decade is the
minimum possible timeframe for meaningful
assessments of climate change," said
WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. "WMO's
report shows that global warming accelerated
in the four decades of 1971 to 2010 and
that the decadal rate of increase between
1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was unprecedented.
Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse
gases are changing our climate, with far
reaching implications for our environment
and our oceans, which are absorbing both
carbon dioxide and heat."
"Natural climate
variability, caused in part by interactions
between our atmosphere and oceans - as evidenced
by El Niño and La Niña events
- means that some years are cooler than
others. On an annual basis, the global temperature
curve is not a smooth one. On a long-term
basis the underlying trend is clearly in
an upward direction, more so in recent times"
said Mr Jarraud.
Between 2001 and 2010,
there was no major El Niño event,
which normally leads to higher temperatures
(as occurred in the then-record warm year
of 1998). Much of the decade experienced
either cooling La Niña or neutral
conditions, except for the 2009/2010 moderate
to strong El Niño.
The 100-page report
and an executive summary, incorporating
findings from a unique survey of 139 National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services
and socio-economic data and analysis from
several UN agencies and partners, were released
to coincide with the first session of the
Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services.
This Board is overseeing the implementation
of the Global Framework for Climate Services
- an international initiative to improve
and expand scientifically-based climate
information to help society cope with the
natural variability of our climate and human
induced climate change.
'"A decadal perspective
makes it possible to assess trends in the
climate system and anticipate the future.
It can also inform efforts to develop operational
climate services that provide information
and forecasts for decision-making in agriculture,
health, disaster risk, water resources and
other sectors. These efforts are being coordinated
through the WMO-led Global Framework for
Climate Services," said Mr Jarraud.
"Climate services
are more necessary than ever to help us
cope with global changes in our climate,
which are accentuated at regional and national
scales. Despite the significant decrease
in casualties due to severe storms and flooding,
the WMO report highlighted an alarming impact
on health and mortality rates caused by
the European and Russian heat-waves. Given
that climate change is expected to lead
to more frequent and intense heat-waves,
we need to be prepared,'' said Mr. Jarraud.
Temperatures: The average
land and ocean-surface temperature for the
decade 2001-2010 was estimated to be 14.47°C,
or 0.47°C above the 1961 - 11000 global
average and +0.21°C above the 1991 -
2000 global average (with a factor of uncertainty
of ± 0.1°C).
The decadal rate of
increase in the global temperature accelerated
between 1971 and 2010. The global temperature
increased at an average estimated rate of
0.17°C per decade during that period,
compared with 0.062°C per decade for
the entire 1880-2010 period. The average
2001-2010 decadal temperature was 0.21°C
warmer than 1991-2000, which in turn was
+0.14°C warmer than 1981-11000.
Every year of the decade
except 2008 was among the 10 warmest years
on record. The warmest year ever recorded
was 2010, with a temperature estimated at
0.54°C above the 14.0°C long term
average of 1961-11000 base period, followed
closely by 2005.
Above-average temperatures
were observed over most parts of the globe
in 2001-2010. This was particularly marked
in the higher latitudes of the northern
hemisphere. Greenland recorded the largest
decadal temperature anomaly, at +1.71°C
above the long-term average and with a temperature
in 2010 of +3.2°C above average. Africa
experienced warmer than normal conditions
in every year of the decade.
Results from WMO's survey
showed that nearly 94% of reporting countries
had their warmest decade in 2001-2010 and
no country reported a nationwide average
decadal temperature anomaly cooler than
the long term average.
Some 44% of countries
in the survey reported nationwide hottest
temperature records in 2001-2010, compared
to 24% in 1991-2000. Coldest daily minimum
temperature absolute records showed an opposite
pattern: In 1961-1970, nearly 32 % of the
countries reported nationwide lowest minimum
temperature values. The percentage decreased
to 11% in 2001-2010.
Precipitation and floods:
The 2001-2010 decade was the second wettest
since 1901. Globally, 2010 was the wettest
year since the start of instrumental records.
Most parts of the globe
had above-normal precipitation during the
decade. The eastern USA, northern and eastern
Canada, and many parts of Europe and central
Asia were particularly wet.
According to the WMO
survey, floods were the most frequently
experienced extreme events over the course
of the decade. Eastern Europe was particularly
affected in 2001 and 2005, India in 2005,
Africa in 2008, Asia (notably Pakistan,
where 2 000 people died and 20 million were
affected) in 2010, and Australia, also in
2010.
Droughts affect more
people than any other kind of natural disaster
owing to their large scale and long-lasting
nature. The decade 2001-2010 saw droughts
occur in all parts of the world. Some of
the highest-impact and long-term droughts
struck Australia (in 2002 and other years),
East Africa (2004 and 2005, resulting in
widespread loss of life) and the Amazon
Basin (2010) with negative environmental
impacts.
Tropical cyclones: Between
2001 and 2010, there were 511 tropical cyclone
related disaster events which resulted in
a total of nearly 170,000 persons reported
killed, over 250 million people reported
affected and estimated economic damages
of US$ 380 billion.
According to the U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
2001-2010 was the most active decade since
1855 in terms of tropical cyclone activity
in the North Atlantic Basin. An average
of 15 named storms per year was recorded,
well above the long-term average of 12.
The North Indian Ocean
saw the deadliest tropical cyclone recorded
during the decade, when Tropical Cyclone
Nargis struck Myanmar in early May 2008.
More than 138 000 people were reported killed
or missing, eight million people were affected
and thousands of homes were destroyed.
Impacts: During the
decade 2001-2010, more than 370,000 people
died as a result of extreme weather and
climate conditions, including heat, cold,
drought, storms and floods, according to
the data provided by the Centre for Research
on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).
This was 20% higher than 1991-2000. This
increase is due mainly to the 2003 heat
wave in Europe and the 2010 in Russia which
contributed to an increase of more than
2000% in the global death toll from heat
waves (from less than 6000 in 1991-2000
to 136 000 in 2001-2010).
On the other hand, there
was a 16% decline in deaths due to storms
and 43% decline in deaths from floods, thanks
mainly to better early warning systems and
increased preparedness and despite an increase
in populations in disaster-prone areas.
According to the 2011
Global Assessment Report, the average population
exposed to flooding every year increased
by 114% globally between 1970 and 2010,
a period in which the world's population
increased by 87% from 3.7 billion to 6.9
billion. The number of people exposed to
severe storms almost tripled in cyclone-prone
areas, increasing by 192%, in the same period.
Much research is being
conducted into whether it is possible to
attribute individual extreme events to climate
change rather than natural variability.
Scientists increasingly conclude that the
likelihood of an event such as the 2003
European heat wave was probably substantially
increased by rising global temperatures.
It is therefore important to develop this
research to strengthen climate science and
to use it to improve climate services to
help society adapt to climate change.
Notes to Editors: Climate
data and information used in this report
was provided by a number of international,
regional and national institutions. Most
of the data on impacts caused by extreme
events was provided by the Centre for Research
on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Details
on data sources, contributors and references
are included in the full report available
at www.wmo.int
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