The new report further
states that greenhouse gas emissions at
or above current rates would induce changes
in the oceans, ice caps, glaciers, the biosphere,
and other components of the climate system.
IPCC confirms that human
activity will further warm the Earth, with
dramatic effects on weather, sea-levels
and the Arctic Stockholm, 27 September 2013
- A major international assessment of climate
change adopted here by 110 governments provides
conclusive new scientific evidence that
human activities are causing unprecedented
changes in the Earth’s climate.
Produced by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was
established by the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations Environment
Programme in 1988, the report confirms that
it is extremely likely (95-100% probability)
that most of the warming since 1950 has
been due to human influence.
The new report further
states that greenhouse gas emissions at
or above current rates would induce changes
in the oceans, ice caps, glaciers, the biosphere,
and other components of the climate system.
Some of these changes would very likely
be unprecedented over decades to thousands
of years. Limiting climate change would
require substantial and sustained reductions
in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and
other greenhouse gases.
“Multiple lines of evidence
confirm that the extra heat being trapped
by greenhouse gases is warming the Earth’s
surface to record levels, heating the oceans,
raising sea levels, melting ice caps and
glaciers, and changing weather patterns
and extremes,” said WMO Secretary-General
Michel Jarraud.
“The IPCC report demonstrates
that we must greatly reduce global emissions
in order to avoid the worst effects of climate
change. It also contains important new scientific
knowledge that can be used to produce actionable
climate information and services for assisting
society to adapt to the impacts of climate
change,” he said.
“Climate change is a
long term challenge but one that requires
urgent action, not tomorrow but today and
right now, given the pace and the scale
by which greenhouse gases are accumulating
in the atmosphere and the rising risks of
a more than 2 degree C temperature rise,”
said UN Under Secretary General and UNEP
Executive Director Achim Steiner. "For
those who want to focus on the scientific
question marks, that is their right do so.
But today we need to focus on the fundamentals
and on the actions. Otherwise the risks
we run will get higher with every year."
“A universal new UN
climate agreement by 2015 is critical, backed
by supportive voluntary initiatives such
as those managing down short-lived climate
pollutants like black carbon. As work under
the inclusive Green Economy shows, the benefits
of a transition to a low carbon future are
multiple from improved public health, food
security and job generation to combating
climate change now and for future generations,’
he added.
The role of the IPCC
is to supply policy-relevant information
about climate change to the world’s governments.
Its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) will be
considered by negotiators responsible for
concluding a new agreement under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) in 2015.
Some of the report’s
key findings include:
The global mean average
surface temperature rose by 0.89°C from
1901 to 2012. Each of the last three decades
has been warmer than all preceding decades
since 1850. In the Northern Hemisphere,
1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year
period of the last 1400 years. The first
decade of the 21st century has been the
warmest of all (WMO’s The Global Climate
2001-2010 estimates the global average surface
temperature for that decade at 14.47°C).
Global average temperatures will likely
rise by another 0.3°C to 0.7°C in
the period 2016-2035. Averaged over the
period 2081-2100, the global surface temperature
is likely to exceed pre-industrial levels
by 1.5°C or even (depending on future
greenhouse gas emissions) 2°C.
Changes in many extreme
weather and climate events have been observed
since about 1950. It is very likely that
the number of cold days and nights has decreased
and the number of warm days and nights has
increased on the global scale. In in large
parts of Europe, Asia and Australia, it
is likely that the frequency of heat waves
has increased.
It is virtually certain
that the upper ocean (down to 700m) has
warmed from 1971 to 2010. The deep ocean
below 3000m has also likely warmed since
the 11000s, when sufficient observations
became available. Ocean warming accounts
for most of the change in the amount of
incoming solar energy stored by the Earth,
accounting for about 93% of it between 1971
and 2010. The global ocean will continue
to warm during the 21st century. Heat will
penetrate from t he surface to the deep
ocean and affect ocean circulation.
The rate of sea level
rise since the mid-19th century has been
larger than the mean rate during the previous
two millennia. The global mean sea level
rose by around 19 cm from 1901 to 2010 due
to increased ocean warming and melting glaciers
and ice sheets. The rate of rise accelerated
between 1993 and 2010, and it is very likely
to increase further during the 21st century
and beyond. The report notes that, during
the last interglacial, when the climate
was 2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels,
maximum global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters
higher than they are today.
Seawater has become
more acidic (its pH has decreased by 0.1)
since the beginning of the industrial era
due to humanity’s carbon dioxide emissions;
it will continue to acidify during the 21st
century.
It is very likely that
the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to
shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere
spring snow cover will decrease during the
21st century as global mean surface temperature
rises Some scenarios foresee a nearly ice-free
Arctic Ocean in September before mid-century.
There is very high confidence that glaciers
have continued to shrink and lose mass world-wide,
with very few exceptions. By 2100, glacial
volume could, under one scenario, decline
further by as much as 35-85%. Meanwhile,
the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover
has decreased since the mid-20th century,
especially in spring, and this decline,
too, will continue.
It is likely that human
influences have affected the global water
cycle and its patterns since 1960. For example,
in recent decades precipitation has increased
in the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern
Hemisphere.
Three years in the making,
the “Physical Science Basis” volume of the
Fifth Assessment Report was produced by
over 250 scientists. Additional volumes
on impacts, mitigation and a synthesis will
be released over the coming year. The IPCC
does not conduct new research. Instead,
its mandate is to make policy-relevant assessments
of the existing worldwide literature on
the scientific, technical and socio-economic
aspects of climate change. Its reports have
played a major role in inspiring governments
to adopt and implement the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change.
+ More
UNEP Signs Agreement
to Improve Monitoring of Hundreds of International
Environmental Accords Mon
UNEP, under whose auspices
most of the agreements were negotiated,
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
with the International Organization of Supreme
Audit Institutions (INTOSAI - Working Group
on Environmental Auditing, WGEA) to ensure
that some 280 Multilateral Environmental
Agreements (MEAs) dedicated to supporting
the global environment are properly implemented.
UNEP Signs Agreement
to Improve Monitoring of Hundreds of International
Environmental Accords Achim Steiner, UNEP
Executive Director (l) and Alar Karis, Chair
of the INTOSAI Working Group on Environmental
Auditing signing the Memorandum of Understanding
at UNEP headquarters in Nairobi.
Nairobi, 09 September
2013 - The United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) has signed a new agreement with one
of the world's most respected global auditing
bodies to track progress towards the implementation
of international environmental agreements
covering climate change, hazardous waste,
biodiversity, and other issues critical
to the future of the planet.
UNEP, under whose auspices
most of the agreements were negotiated,
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
with the International Organization of Supreme
Audit Institutions (INTOSAI - Working Group
on Environmental Auditing, WGEA) to ensure
that some 280 Multilateral Environmental
Agreements (MEAs) dedicated to supporting
the global environment are properly implemented.
FURTHER RESOURCES
Auditing the Implementation of Multilateral
Environmental Agreements (MEAs): A Primer
for Auditors
UNEP Division of Environmental Law &
Conventions
The environmental agreements are intended
to deliver numerous benefits in addressing
food, energy and water security, ensure
progress towards the United Nations Millennium
Development Goals, and support the post-2015
development agenda.
The new MoU was signed
at UNEP headquarters in Nairobi by UN Under-Secretary-General
and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner,
and Auditor General of Estonia and Chair
of the INTOSAI Working Group on Environmental
Auditing Alar Karis.
"Improving the
monitoring and evaluation of actions taken
by governments, or groups of governments,
to honour environmental commitments will
play a key role in global efforts to meet
the range of internationally-agreed targets
that can deliver inclusive sustainable development
for all," said Mr. Steiner.
"This MoU paves
the way for closer cooperation between UNEP
and auditing institutions worldwide to evaluate
whether government actions to tackle environmental
challenges have produced the intended results,
how gaps can be bridged, and whether environmental
policies are being implemented in full compliance
with international standards," added
Mr. Steiner.
Despite the major success
of some MEAs, such as the Montreal Protocol
which has enabled reductions of over 98
per cent of all global consumption of controlled
ozone-depleting substances, progress towards
meeting other international targets has
been slower.
UNEP's Global Environment
Outlook (GEO-5) report, released last year,
assessed 90 of the most critical internationally-agreed
environmental goals and objectives, and
found that significant progress had only
been made in four.
Audits from SAIs can
provide reliable information for elected
officials about their government's performance
in meeting environmental targets. In turn,
this can assist elected officials in reviewing
successes, and identifying priority areas
for action.
Effective environmental
audits have been linked to improved water
quality in rivers, strengthened protection
of flora and fauna, and reduced desertification
and pollution. Benefits to environmental
governance include the development of new
legislation and regulations, and stronger
compliance with those that already exist.
Improved environmental
auditing can also assist in achieving the
aims of new multilateral treaties, such
as the Minimata Convention on Mercury which
aims to reduce global emissions of the toxic
metal. Negotiations - convened by UNEP -
were finalized earlier this year and the
treaty is set to be signed by member states
at a conference in Japan in October.
INTOSAI - WGEA figures
show that since UNEP first began working
with 112 of its national audit offices six
years ago, the number of environmental audits
has grown significantly. The number of MEA-related
audits carried out between 2009 and 2011
grew by roughly one third.
The new MoU with INTOSAI
will support UNEP's mandate to promote the
development and facilitation of international
environmental law, governance and policy.
Through its Division
of Environmental Law & Conventions (DELC),
UNEP promotes inter-linkages among environmental
conventions and agreements, supports MEA
Secretariats and UN member states in implementing
their treaty obligations, and encourages
government participation in regional and
global environmental fora.